De impact van het EU Emission Trading System op de waardering van Europese beursgenoteerde ondernemingen. Een Tobin’s Q analyse.
CO2-uitstoot ook schadelijk voor Europese ondernemingen
Onderzoek van een student aan de KU Leuven gaat na wat de invloed is van het European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) op de waarde van Europese ondernemingen. Dit grootste internationale emissiehandelssysteem kende haar intrede in 2005, als reactie op de toenemende klimaatverandering. Uit het onderzoek blijkt dat er toch ook enkele negatieve implicaties zijn voor de waardering van bedrijven.
EU ETS
Het Europese emissiehandelssysteem, dat ingevoerd werd door de Europese Unie, is op heden het belangrijkste instrument om de CO2-uitstoot te reduceren. Bedrijven krijgen CO2-rechten toegewezen, waarvan het aantal jaarlijks gradueel afgebouwd wordt. Indien bedrijven rechten op overschot hebben kunnen ze deze behouden dan wel verhandelen. Daarentegen zullen bedrijven, die rechten tekort hebben, moeten investeren om hun CO2-uitstoot te reduceren of betalen voor extra emissierechten. Doen ze dit niet, dan volgen er boetes.
Keerzijde van de medaille
Een afnemende CO2-uitstoot op Europees niveau is onmiskenbaar gunstig voor het milieu. Dit onderzoek toont aan dat bedrijven met een hoge CO2-intensiteit een negatieve invloed ervaren op hun waarde. Hetzelfde geldt ook voor een toenemende CO2-intensiteit over de jaren. Milieunormen worden immers steeds strenger en de markt redeneert dat bedrijven met een hoge CO2-intensiteit in de toekomst met meer risico’s te kampen zullen krijgen. Bovendien blijkt de markt waarde te hechten aan milieuvriendelijke bedrijven per industrie, d.w.z. dat die bedrijven binnen hun eigen industrietak een betere waarde halen.
Daarnaast blijkt dat bedrijven met een hoge CO2-intensiteit nog een sterkere neerwaartse druk op hun waardering kennen bij een overschot aan emissierechten. Zo staat de markt hier argwanend tegenover, precies omdat die bedrijven minder nood hebben aan ‘vergroening’.
Ondanks de negatieve invloed van CO2-intensiteit blijkt dan weer dat bedrijven niettemin een betere waardering krijgen, wanneer ze vrijwillig hun uitstootgegevens rapporteren via het Carbon Disclosure Project, een organisatie die onderzoek doet naar de klimaatverandering en uitstootgegevens aan het publiek ter beschikking stelt. Milieuvriendelijke bedrijven, die de nodige transparantie vertonen, kunnen zich bijgevolg best indekken tegen voormelde negatieve gevolgen.
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