Stock prices in domestic and cross-country transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks and the role of countercyclical MP

Olivier Vermassen
Persbericht

Stock prices in domestic and cross-country transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks and the role of countercyclical MP

Maakt Geld Gelukkig? Een Economische Invalshoek

De voorbije jaren doken termen zoals geldinjecties van voornamelijk de Federal Reserve vaak op in de pers. Simpel gezegd koopt een centrale bank obligaties op van de markt om hier vervolgens ‘nieuw’ geld tegenover te stellen. Door middel van zulke operaties stijgt de geldhoeveelheid in de economie. Telkens weer worden dergelijke geldinjecties geassocieerd met veranderingen op beurs. Echter, stel dat zulke operaties geld te veel creëren in de economie, wat gebeurt er dan met de beurs en blijft dit geld in het binnenland of stroomt het naar het buitenland?

Het onderzoek van Vermassen (2014) tracht een antwoord op deze vraag te formuleren. Kennis over de relatie tussen geld en de beurs is belangrijk voor iedereen, aangezien de meerderheid van de bevolking wel één of meerdere beleggingen heeft. Dit wordt empirisch onderzocht met een vector autoregressief model. In dit statistische model gaat we na hoe schokken in Amerikaanse ‘excess liquidity’ door de binnenlandse economie sijpelt en door de economie van groeilanden. Onder andere wordt er onderzocht wat het effect is op het bruto binnenlands product, prijzen, beurzen … Dit staat ons toe om te bepalen hoe verschillende economische variabelen op dergelijke schokken reageren.

Uit de resultaten valt meteen op dat, wanneer er geld teveel aanwezig is in de U.S., dit gepaard gaat met stijgingen in de Amerikaanse aandelenprijzen. Bovendien vindt dit teveel aan geld zijn weg in de beurzen van Peru en Malaysië. Verwonderenswaardig heeft een stijging in excess liquidity géén effect op de reële economie van groeilanden. Dit roept vraagtekens op bij de wenselijkheid van deze stijging in de beurskoersen. Het zou niet wenselijk zijn indien dit teveel aan geld een overwaardering creërt op de beurs. Echter kan het statistisch model een dergelijk fenomeen van overwaardering niet detecteren.

In tegenstelling tot de groeilanden, lijkt het dat een teveel aan geld vooral de Amerikaanse economie gelukkig heeft gemaakt. Bijkomend hebben de groeilanden weinig wapens om de negatieve invloed van buitenlandse economieën tegen te gaan. Kunnen we, gegeven de negatieve invloed voor groeilanden, concluderen dat ethisch centraal bankieren een plaats moet krijgen binnen de internationale politiek?

Bibliografie:

Vermassen, O. (2014). Stock Prices in Domestic and Cross-country Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of Countercyclical Monetary Policy.

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