Het effect van conflicten op financiële markten met hoge geweldpleging
Het effect van conflicten op financiële markten met hoge geweldpleging
Na 9/11, de financiële de New York Stock Exchange en Dow Jones bleef gesloten voor meerdere dagen, de langste shutdown sinds 1933. Als de markt uiteindelijk toch opende, de markt viel met 684 punten, een val van 7,1%, het grootste verlies in ruilgeschiedenis voor een handelsdag. Dit gegeven doet de vraag oppoppen of elke markt zo reageert op een terroristische aanval of een andere politiek conflict.
Het resultaat van een terroristische aanval op een Europees land
Er zijn rijkelijke studies uitgevoerd in het verleden die bewijs leverden dat de financiële markten significant negatief reageren na een terroristische aanval (Rigobon & Sack, 2005; Schneider & Troeger, 2006 and Zussman, Zussman, & Nielsen, 2008). De meeste studies concentreren zich echter op lokale markten en afzonderlijke bedrijven. Zo zijn er interessante studies uitgevoerd die bewijs leverden voor een significante positieve impact op de wapenindustrie na een terroristische aanval (Apergis & Apergis, 2016). In dit onderzoek wordt er echter bewijs gevonden dat een terroristische aanval geen significant effect heeft op de Europese totale markt. Dit kan enerzijds worden verklaard dat de Europese markt zeer gediversifieerd is of anderzijds dat de Europese financiële markt toch niet zo geïntegreerd is.
Het effect van conflicten op de Indische financiële markt
Aangezien er veel bewijs is dat politieke conflicten de lokale (westelijke) markten significant negatief beïnvloeden is het interessant om markten te onderzoeken waar geweldpleging vaker voorkomt. In westelijke echter komen politieke conflicten en terroristische niet vaak voor. Daarom disconteren investeerders de markten niet naargelang. Een land waar er wel veel spanning bestaat op deze vlakken is Israël. Voor deze financiële markt is echter bewijs gevonden dat investeerder weldegelijk weten dat er een reële kans is op een aanval en dus de marktprijs navenant disconteren (Yonamine ,2013). Een gelijkaardig land is India en staat op de 18e plaats van de gevaarlijkste plaatsen om zaken te doen volgens de Conflict and Political Violence Index in 2014 (Dhoot, 2014). Dit is dus een land dat niet zo extreem is als Israël maar ook niet zo vredevol is als de meeste westerse landen. In dit onderzoek vinden we echter een significant negatief effect op de Indische financiële markt met de hoeveelheid van de conflicten. Dit wilt dus zeggen dat de Indische investeerder de Indische index niet disconteert en negatief reageert wanneer er zich conflicten voordoen. Het onderzoek geeft dus weer dat de conflicten weldegelijk relevant blijft voor bepaalde landen met hoge varianties van geweldpleging, maar niet voor allemaal.
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