De hype die niet aan de verwachtingen voldoet: technische analyse
Uit onderzoek aan de KU Leuven Campus Antwerpen is gebleken dat technische analyse geen snelle manier tot rijkdom is, en zelfs onderpresteert aan een passieve investeringsstrategie.
Steeds meer media en academische aandacht is gericht op het investeren in aandelen en andere financiële producten op basis van technische analyse. Dit is een investeringsstrategie waarbij de belegger niet gaat kijken naar de performantie van het bedrijf, zoals bij een passieve investeringsstrategie, maar zich focust op patronen op de beurskoersen van de aandelen. Doorheen de jaren heeft deze strategie aan populariteit gewonnen maar toch is er veel twijfel over het te behalen rendement.
Uit onderzoek blijkt dat deze strategie niet aan de verwachtingen kan tippen. Een grondige analyse op Amerikaanse aandelen en indices toont aan dat er geen beter rendement kan worden behaald via deze strategie ten opzichte van een passieve investeringsstrategie waarbij een aandeel gekocht en langdurig bijgehouden wordt. De investeringsstrategie wordt opgesteld door vier trading regels die koop- en verkoopsignalen aangeven op basis van de historische koers van een aandeel. Er is natuurlijk wel een verschil in performantie van de verschillende trading regels die gehanteerd worden en er is bijkomende focus gelegd op de combinatie van deze trading regels. In praktijk kijken investeerders echter naar signalen van meerdere trading regels alvorens ze een koop- of verkooporder invoeren. Toch kan deze strategie in geen geval betere rendementen voorleggen en het heeft bovendien zelfs moeilijkheden om consistent positieve rendementen te behalen. Daarnaast genereert deze strategie veel meer orders dan een passieve strategie waardoor er ook meer transactiekosten moeten worden betaald en dit resulteert meestal in negatieve rendementen voor een investeerder op het einde van de rit. Het blijkt zelfs dat juiste signalen, orders die positieve rendementen genereren, puur uit geluk ontstaan. Investeerders zijn dus beter af om een passieve investeringsstrategie te hanteren waarbij er naar de onderliggende waarde van de aandelen wordt gekeken.
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