NAVO en de CSTO: waarom nu wel en dan weer geen interventie?
24 februari 2022. Rusland valt Oekraïne binnen om Oekraïens NAVO-lidmaatschap te verhinderen. Tot nu toe heeft de NAVO gereageerd met wapenleveringen aan Oekraïne, niet met het sturen van militaire troepen. Een maand eerder kwam een andere veiligheidsorganisatie wél in actie: de ‘Collective Security Treaty Organisation’ (CSTO) stuurde troepen naar Kazachstan om lokale onrust in te tomen. De CSTO bestaat uit Rusland en vijf andere voormalige Sovjetstaten en wordt als de Russische tegenhanger van de NAVO beschouwd.
Na de Koude Oorlog volgde er 30 jaar relatieve vrede op het Europees continent, maar die lijkt nu voorbij te zijn. Oorlogsretoriek en wapenwedlopen zijn terug van weggeweest. Ook veiligheidsorganisaties, zoals de NAVO en de CSTO, worden relevanter. Maar welke factoren bepalen nu de mate van betrokkenheid van deze twee veiligheidsorganisaties bij een conflict? Deze scriptie onderzocht welke factoren de NAVO en de CSTO hebben gedreven om al dan niet betrokken te raken bij de conflicten in Afghanistan en Syrië. Die betrokkenheid gaat van passiviteit en politieke steun tot wapenleveringen en grootschalige militaire interventies. In de casestudies werd het proces van de uiteindelijke betrokkenheid zo gedetailleerd mogelijk in beeld gebracht door wetteksten, academisch onderzoek en persberichten te analyseren. De resultaten geven ook stof tot nadenken waarom geen van beide organisaties tot nu toe militair hebben geïntervenieerd in Oekraïne.
Veiligheidsorganisaties: bescherming of verbinding?
De NAVO en de CSTO werden vanuit twee theoretische perspectieven geanalyseerd: het neorealisme en het constructivisme. Het neorealisme stelt dat staten allianties vormen om zich te beschermen tegen een gemeenschappelijke dreiging. De NAVO werd tijdens de Koude Oorlog bijvoorbeeld door het Westen opgericht om zich te beschermen tegen de gemeenschappelijke dreiging van de Sovjet-Unie. De Sovjet-Unie stichtte op haar beurt het Warschaupact om een tegengewicht te vormen tegen de gepercipieerde dreiging van de NAVO.
Het constructivisme daarentegen beweert dat gelijkgestemde staten zich verenigen in veiligheidsgemeenschappen op basis van gemeenschappelijke normen en waarden die een collectieve identiteit vormen. Binnen zo’n veiligheidsgemeenschap worden geschillen op een geweldloze manier opgelost en moeten lidstaten zich aan de afgesproken normen en waarden houden. Denk maar aan de toelatingsprocedure van de NAVO, waarbij kandidaat-lidstaten eerst moeten voldoen aan democratische normen en waarden.
NAVO kwam, zag en vertrok
Na de Koude Oorlog werd de relevantie van de NAVO ter discussie gesteld, omdat de veiligheidsorganisatie niet langer geconfronteerd werd met de veiligheidsdreiging van de Sovjet-Unie. Maar de aanslagen van 9/11 creëerde een nieuwe dreiging voor de NAVO: terreurorganisaties zoals Al Qaeda. Daardoor werd het voortbestaan van het bondgenootschap opnieuw gerechtvaardigd. Zo voerde de NAVO een militaire operatie uit tegen Al Qaeda en het regime van de taliban in Afghanistan en verspreidde het liberale normen en waarden om er een democratisch staatsbestel te creëren. De militaire operatie van de NAVO zou tot 2014 op grote schaal voortduren. Terwijl Rusland in 2008 de Georgiëoorlog voerde en in 2014 de Krim annexeerde, begonnen verschillende NAVO-leden oorlogsmoe te worden van de oorlog in Afghanistan. De interne samenhang en collectieve identiteit van de NAVO kwamen zo onder druk te staan, waardoor het bondgenootschap zijn betrokkenheid in Afghanistan tegen 2014 aanzienlijk verminderde.
Anderzijds raakte de NAVO niet betrokken bij Syrië om dezelfde redenen als voor zijn terugtrekking in Afghanistan: de steun van Rusland voor Assad compliceerde het machtsevenwicht in Syrië en er was onenigheid binnen de NAVO over al dan niet militair in te grijpen. Bovendien keurde de internationale gemeenschap een NAVO-interventie in Syrië niet goed door de herinnering aan de NAVO-interventie van 2011 in Libië en de bittere nasmaak daarvan.
Passief CSTO
In zowel Afghanistan als Syrië bleef de CSTO passief omdat de veiligheidsorganisatie de principes van non-interventie en respect voor de territoriale integriteit hoog in het vaandel heeft staan, mede door het autoritaire karakter van het regime van de lidstaten. Bovendien is de organisatorische capaciteit van het blok nog niet voldoende ontwikkeld om grootschalige militaire interventies uit te voeren. In tegenstelling tot eerder onderzoek dat beweerde dat de CSTO is opgericht om tegengewicht aan het Westen te bieden, blijkt uit deze casestudies dat de CSTO de ISAF-missie van de NAVO in Afghanistan steunde en zelfs tot samenwerking tussen de NAVO en de CSTO heeft opgeroepen. In Syrië heeft het blok louter politieke steun uitgesproken voor Ruslands steun aan Assad, maar het heeft geen troepen ingezet om ook militair op te treden.
Wat nu in Oekraïne?
September 2022. Rusland bezet nog altijd Oekraïense gebieden. Zal de NAVO er nog een militaire interventie uitvoeren? In tegenstelling tot het begin van de eeuwwisseling toen de NAVO een operatie voerde in Afghanistan om zijn voortbestaan te rechtvaardigen, hoeft de NAVO vandaag geen rechtvaardiging voor zijn voortbestaan te ‘zoeken’ door de duidelijke dreiging vanuit Rusland. En wat zijn de plannen van de CSTO? De principes van non-interventie en respect voor de territoriale integriteit blijven belangrijk voor het militair blok, waardoor een interventie in een niet-lidstaat zoals Oekraïne onwaarschijnlijk lijkt. Maar wat als Rusland delen van Oekraïne inlijft of zelfs Oekraïne niet meer als een soeverein land beschouwt…
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