Politisering als drijvende kracht achter een democratische Europese energietransitie
Onze samenleving verkeert in een volatiel politiek klimaat waar het energielandschap langzaam richting duurzaamheid verschuift. Hernieuwbare energie is een hoeksteen geworden van het hedendaagse energiebeleid, dat niet alleen resoneert met klimaatdoelstellingen, maar ook met geopolitieke complexiteit. In de queeste naar "net zero" en energieonafhankelijkheid komt het begrip “politisering” om de hoek kijken.
Door politisering is hernieuwbare energie prominent aanwezig in beleidsdiscussies over de energietransitie, industriële competitiviteit, en strategische autonomie. Een breed scala aan politieke kopzorgen dus, dat ervoor heeft gezorgd dat hernieuwbare energie hoog op de politieke agenda is komen te staan en de samenleving steeds sterker achter een duurzamer energiemodel staat. Politisering wordt echter meestal gezien als een beperking in het realiseren van beleidsuitkomsten. Deze studie toont echter aan dat politisering een positieve bijdrage heeft in het waarmaken van de energietransitie.
Foto door Appolinary Kalashnikova via Unsplash
Politisering en democratisering
Politisering?
Politisering kan kort beschreven worden als het proces waarbij een beleidsonderwerp wint aan belang op de politieke agenda en onderwerp wordt van toenemende polarisatie. Het begrip werd gepionierd om Europese integratie in de binnenlandse politiek van de lidstaten te integreren, als poging om te begrijpen waarom Europese politiek steeds ingewikkelder is geworden.
Politisering werd dus meestal in een negatief licht gezet. Het werd namelijk gezien als een belemmering om effectieve oplossingen te leveren voor dringende beleidsproblemen op het Europese niveau — een bedreiging voor de zogenaamde outputlegitimiteit van de EU.
Klimaatbeleid, waar hernieuwbaar energiebeleid onder valt, is dus een schoolvoorbeeld van een gepolitiseerd beleidsthema. Het grote verschil is dat politisering hier wel vaker wordt gezien als een noodzaak om te verzekeren dat er echt beleid wordt gevoerd. Hier zou politisering dus geen belemmering moeten zijn, maar juist een drijvende factor achter effectieve beleidsuitkomsten. In dit artikel draag ik die drijvende kracht voor van politisering om duurzame beleidsuitkomsten te realiseren binnen het Europese hernieuwbare energiebeleid.
Een gepolitiseerd en democratischer hernieuwbaar energiebeleid?
Hernieuwbare energie is een voorbeeld van crisis-gerelateerde politisering. In tijden van klimaatdisruptie en economische en geopolitieke turbulentie neemt het belang van duurzame energie toe in de publieke opinie en high politics — vanwege zorgen rond onder meer kostenefficiëntie en energiesoevereiniteit. Hernieuwbare energie is ook onder druk komen te staan omwille van politieke positionering, wanneer gepolariseerde belangen samenkomen in de politieke arena. Tenslotte brengt politisering ook meer stemmen in die arena om een invloed uit te brengen op de beleidsvorming. Naarmate hernieuwbare energie actiever aan bod komt in beleidsdiscussies, mobiliseren meer actoren (denk aan klimaatdenktanks als Ember, E3G, alsook andere niet-statelijke actoren) en neemt hun stem toe in belang.
De transitie richting een duurzamere toekomst is steeds vaker een topic binnen high politics, wat dus gepaard gaat met een uitbreiding van stemmen die een rol spelen binnen de ontwikkeling van duurzaam beleid. In essentie is er dus een grotere rol voor het publiek en andere niet-gouvernementele actoren. Die bottom-up versterking kan haar invloed bewerkstelligen op verschillende manieren, waaronder via lokale gemeenschappen rond hernieuwbare energie.
Kortom, door politisering ontstaat er een grotere druk bij overheden om responsief te zijn naar die sterkere bottom-up belangen (ook vanop verschillende bestuursniveaus) en dus duurzame beleidsresultaten te realiseren via sterk beleid. Beleidsresponsiviteit is een fundament van de democratie, en politisering hoort dus die responsiviteit te versterken.
Politisering bevordert de energietransitie
Om te onderzoeken of politisering een positief effect heeft op de rol van hernieuwbare energie in de EU, wat een duurzame beleidsuitkomst is, werd statistisch onderzoek uitgevoerd op basis van verschillende databronnen. In concreto werd politisering in samenspel gezet met het percentage van hernieuwbare energie in de energiemix, alsook een reeks economische en politiek-institutionele factoren.
Democratische realisatie van duurzame beleidsuitkomsten
Visualisatie door de auteur. Eigen politiseringsindex o.b.v. verschillende databronnen, Eurostat voor percentage hernieuwbare energie.
Zowel de politisering van hernieuwbare energie als haar rol in nationaal energiegebruik is een opgang aan het maken sinds 2009, te zien in bovenstaande figuur. Deze samenhang werd ook statistisch bewezen, waar politisering effectief positief werd geassocieerd met een positieve evolutie in de rol van hernieuwbare energie. Toch zijn hier een aantal kanttekeningen te maken. Zo is politisering voornamelijk een bevorderende factor wanneer hernieuwbare energie reeds momentum draagt, door in vorige jaren al gegroeid te zijn. Dit betekent dat politisering hier voornamelijk leidt tot betere beleidsresponsiviteit als de beleidskwestie al enig momentum draagt.
Dit momentum kan afkomstig zijn van zowel bottom-up als top-down politisering, wat suggereert dat bottom-up politisering ook duurzame beleidsresultaten in de EU kan aansturen. Van hieruit zijn belangrijke conclusies te trekken over het democratisch potentieel van politisering. Dit bewijst namelijk dat beleidsverandering niet alleen een top-down proces is en dat er dynamisch rekening moet worden gehouden met de voorkeuren van het publiek, in plaats van alleen na de bundeling van de publieke opinie tijdens verkiezingen.
Aangezien hernieuwbare energie bovendien een deel van de oplossing is voor het nefaste probleem van de klimaatverandering, kan deze bevinding worden geëxtrapoleerd naar andere dimensies van duurzame transformatie (bv. natuurherstel). Op basis van deze bevinding kan worden aanbevolen dat beleidsmakers kenmerken van participatieve democratie versterken, zodat gepolitiseerde beleidskwesties en bottom-up stemmen gemakkelijker hun weg vinden naar de beleidsvorming.
It’s the economy (and some governance), stupid
De heterogene contexten van de 27 EU-lidstaten werden in rekening gebracht door de inclusie van verschillende economische en politiek-institutionele factoren. Hier werd duidelijk dat variabelen die doorgaans een beeld geven van goed openbaar bestuur niet meteen gelinkt zijn aan een uitbreiding van hernieuwbare energie. Grote overheden en rigoureuze besluitvormingsprocessen faciliteren dus niet noodzakelijkerwijs de flexibele besluitvorming waar duurzame transformatie, inclusief de energietransitie, baat bij zou hebben.
Economische factoren kwamen als meest invloedrijk naar voor, met een focus op indicatoren die licht brengen aan de fiscale ruimte voor overheidsinvesteringen in duurzame beleidsdoelen, zoals de uitbreiding van hernieuwbare energie. Een succesvolle duurzame transformatie zal namelijk een aanzienlijke toename van overheidsinvesteringen vereisen. Vandaar is het essentieel om de investeringscapaciteit niet enkel te laten afhangen van de fiscale speelruimte. Een veelvoud aan kostenlasten zal de duurzame transformatie wellicht politiseren en de schuld/BBP-ratio’s opdrijven. Beperkte begrotingsruimte zal duurzame beleidsresultaten in de weg staan, indien het begrotingsbeleid niet wordt verenigd met duurzame transformatie.
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