Koolstofneutraal in 2050, hoe gaan we dat in vredesnaam doen?
De Europese Commissie heeft ambitieuze doelen geformuleerd: 55 % minder uitstoot in 2030, koolstofneutraal in 2050. Zoals de Belgische overheid nu bezig is, zullen die doelstellingen niet worden gehaald. Momenteel loopt er zelfs een rechtszaak, omdat een groep bezorgde burgers de overheid heeft aangeklaagd vanwege haar klimaatnalatigheid. Die Klimaatzaak is geïnspireerd op initiatieven uit andere landen. Hoe komt het dat onze en andere overheden zo’n moeite hebben met adequaat klimaatbeleid, ondanks overstromingen aan de Maas, bosbranden in Zuid-Europa en temperatuurrecords die vallen als dominostenen? Kan het ook anders?
Doelgericht klimaatbeleid? Bepaald niet eenvoudig!
Beleid maken is natuurlijk geen kinderspel. Maar in de klimaatkwestie heeft het er ook mee te maken dat beleidsmakers, burgers, en andere maatschappelijke partijen nog steeds uitgaan van continue groei: toenemende welvaart in termen van bruto binnenlands product. Meer groei betekent meer gebruik van grondstoffen, energie en uitstoot van broeikasgassen en vervuiling.
Beleidsmakers gokken op technologie die nog niet gerealiseerd is
Technologische vooruitgang heeft het gebruik van grondstoffen en energie wat kunnen inperken. Een moderne auto verbruikt minder benzine dan een auto uit 1990. Beleidsmakers gaan ervan uit dat technologie zo goed zal worden dat meer groei volledig loskomt van extra nood aan energie en grondstoffen. Dat heet absolute loskoppeling.
Optimistisch? Volgens sommige onderzoekers wel: ze beschouwen zo’n absolute loskoppeling als onmogelijk of in het beste geval enkel haalbaar in de verre toekomst. In De Morgen van 27 september 2023 werd nog verwezen naar een recente analyse van onderzoekers Hickel en Vogel die aantoont dat groene groei ons aan het huidige tempo pas over 200 jaar naar koolstofneutraliteit zal brengen. Toch wagen beleidsmakers die gok. Is dat een manier om als goede huisvaders om te gaan met de toekomst?
Economie is meer dan "money money money"
Het kan ook anders. Binnen de economische wetenschappen is er een zijtak genaamd Ecological Economics die vertrekt vanuit andere aannames dan klassieke economie. Binnen de klassieke economie wordt er niet standaard rekening gehouden met de draagkracht van de aarde. Binnen Ecological Economics is dat daarentegen een fundamentele voorwaarde voor een gezonde economie. Ecologisch economen stellen dat de hoeveelheid energie en grondstoffen die je op een duurzame manier kan gebruiken nu eenmaal beperkt is en we mogen die grenzen niet overschrijden.
Een ander kenmerk van ecologisch economen is hun “techno-pessimistische” visie. Ze vinden het geen goed idee om te vertrouwen op nog ongerealiseerde technologische vooruitgang en baseren zich dus liever op technologie die nu beschikbaar is. Mochten we toch grote sprongen maken qua technologie, dan is dat gewoon mooi meegenomen. De matrix hieronder, al in 1989 opgesteld door Robert Constanza, laat zien hoe gevaarlijk het kan zijn om op onbewezen technologische innovatie te vertrouwen.
Het zal niet als een verrassing komen dat aanhangers van Ecological Economics continue groei meestal niet wenselijk vinden. Zo beargumenteren sommige economen van die stroming bijvoorbeeld dat zero growth of zelfs degrowth waardevolle beleidselementen kunnen zijn om koolstofneutraliteit te bereiken. Aangezien groei op dit moment nog steeds leidt tot een hoger verbruik van grondstoffen en energie, zal een economie die niet groeit, of krimpt, logischerwijs minder grondstoffen en energie verbruiken.
Bij een lagere economische productie hoef je minder te werken
En ons welzijn dan?
Een economie die stagneert of krimpt, dat klinkt misschien angstaanjagend als we groei gewend zijn. Maar dat hoeft niet zo te zijn. Bij een lagere economische productie zal je bijvoorbeeld minder hoeven te werken. Extra vrije tijd kan je op een waardevolle manier invullen met hobby’s, zelfontplooiing, sociale connecties, … Een decennialange studie aan Harvard heeft bijvoorbeeld aangetoond dat de grootste bron van geluk sociale fitheid is.
Is degrowth de ideale oplossing?
Voordat je radicale veranderingen doorvoert, wil je natuurlijk kunnen inschatten wat de gevolgen zullen zijn. Economen en beleidsmakers doen dat tegenwoordig met modellen en simulaties die verschillende toekomstscenario’s nagaan. Wat als we een economie simuleren die uitgaat van degrowth? In welke mate zou de economie moeten krimpen?
Als je zoiets wil simuleren, komt het erop neer dat je een complex model gebruikt waarin je allerlei variabelen kan aanpassen. Denk aan variabelen zoals bevolkingsgroei of de jaarlijkse groei van zonne-energie. De resultaten van die simulaties vergelijk je met een scenario dat je “business as usual” (BAU) noemt, oftewel: wat er zou gebeuren als je verder doet zoals nu.
Uit mijn simulaties bleek dat degrowth alleen onvoldoende is om een nuluitstoot te bereiken. Dan heb ik verder gezocht welk bijkomend beleid er nodig is om toch de klimaatdoelstellingen te behalen. Zo kwam ik uit op twee mogelijke scenario's. In beide gevallen was de minimale economische productie voor een behoorlijk bestaan de doorslaggevende variabele om de mate van degrowth te bepalen. Beide scenario's maken uiteindelijk gebruik van degrowth, verhoogde energie-efficiëntie, elektrificering van de transportsector, een hoge mate van carbon capture en versnelde ontwikkeling van hernieuwbare energiebronnen. Dat wordt geïllustreerd in de volgende grafieken:
Hier zie je een BAU-scenario, een MLT-scenario (dat is een meer gematigd klimaatbeleid), en de twee scenario’s met degrowth. De degrowth-scenario’s laten zien dat het mogelijk is om gecontroleerd toe te werken naar de gewenste economische productiviteit.
En hier zie je dat de twee degrowth-scenario’s in 2050 de nuluitstoot bereiken, terwijl de BAU en MLT-scenario's daar nog ver van verwijderd zijn. Zoals verwacht: hoe meer degrowth, hoe minder verregaand de andere maatregelen hoeven te zijn.
Bye bye BAU!
Wereldwijd staan politici voor een herculeaanse uitdaging als ze de klimaatdoelstellingen willen behalen. De maatschappij verwacht nog steeds toenemende materiële rijkdom. Dat gaat duidelijk ten koste van onze natuurlijke omgeving. “Business as usual” zou catastrofale gevolgen hebben. Maar een scenario waarin men vertrouwt op technologische mirakels om “green growth” mogelijk te maken, dat lijkt ook onverstandig.
Gelukkig staan politici er niet alleen voor. Economen doen hun best om hen te hulp te staan door na te denken over alternatieven en door beredeneerde voorspellingen te doen over de toekomst. Uit mijn simulaties blijkt dat het mogelijk is om tegen 2050 een nuluitstoot te bereiken. Maar dan moeten onze politici daar wel naar handelen.
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