Democratic backsliding vormt een groeiende bedreiging binnen de Europese Unie (EU) en roept fundamentele vragen op over hoe de EU haar kernwaarden kan handhaven binnen haar eigen lidstaten. In zijn masterproef onderzoekt Loren Vermeire hoe de EU omgaat met lidstaten die democratische principes en de rechtsstaat ondermijnen, met focus op Hongarije en Polen. Door middel van casestudies en interviews met EU-functionarissen brengt de thesis de complexe politieke en juridische factoren in kaart die de EU’s respons op democratic backsliding beïnvloeden. Deze factoren omvatten onder andere juridische beperkingen, interne verdeeldheid tussen EU-instellingen, politieke overwegingen en de invloed van lidstaten.
Wat is Democratic Backsliding en Waarom Is Het Een Bedreiging?
Democratic backsliding, ofwel het geleidelijk ondermijnen van democratische normen en de rechtsstaat, vormt een gevaar voor de fundamentele waarden van de EU. In de afgelopen jaren hebben vooral Hongarije en Polen deze waarden in gevaar gebracht door wijzigingen in de grondwet, aanvallen op de rechterlijke macht, beperkingen van de media en het inperken van burgerrechten. Zoals de thesis aantoont, leidt deze ontwikkeling tot toenemende spanning binnen de EU, die als bewaker van democratische principes en mensenrechten wordt gezien. Wanneer de EU er niet in slaagt om dergelijke schendingen binnen haar eigen lidstaten aan te pakken, staat haar legitimiteit als verdediger van democratische waarden op het spel.
Bron: Ronan Shenhav/Flickr
EU’s Beperkingen en Middelen tegen Democratic Backsliding
Het onderzoek wijst uit dat de EU een reeks instrumenten heeft om democratic backsliding tegen te gaan, maar dat de effectiviteit van deze instrumenten vaak wordt beperkt door politieke en juridische obstakels. Artikel 7 van het Verdrag betreffende de Europese Unie biedt bijvoorbeeld de mogelijkheid om een lidstaat zijn stemrecht in de Raad te ontnemen bij ernstige en aanhoudende schendingen van EU-waarden. Dit artikel werd ingezet tegen Hongarije en Polen, maar door de eis van unanimiteit in het besluitvormingsproces kunnen deze landen elkaars sancties blokkeren, wat de effectiviteit ondermijnt.
Een ander instrument dat de EU recentelijk heeft ingezet, is de ‘Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation’. Deze regelgeving koppelt de toegang tot EU-fondsen aan het naleven van de rechtsstaat. Bijvoorbeeld, zoals de thesis aantoont, besloot de Europese Commissie in 2022 om subsidies aan Hongarije op te schorten totdat het land hervormingen doorvoerde om corruptie en inmenging in de rechterlijke macht aan te pakken. Dit illustreert dat financiële sancties effectief kunnen zijn, hoewel de toepassing ervan tijdrovend is. Het jaarlijkse ‘Rule of Law Report’ dat sinds 2020 wordt gepubliceerd, biedt daarnaast transparantie, maar heeft zonder harde sancties een beperkte impact op lidstaten die vastberaden zijn hun beleid voort te zetten.
Verklarende Factoren in de EU’s Aanpak
Op basis van een literatuurstudie, documentenanalyse van wetteksten en interviews met EU-functionarissen en medewerkers van het maatschappelijk middenveld onderscheidt de thesis vier hoofdvariabelen die de EU-respons op democratic backsliding sturen:
Complexiteit en Grenzen van de EU’s Aanpak
Het onderzoek wijst op de grenzen van de EU’s middelen tegen democratic backsliding. De EU heeft een fragiele balans te bewaren tussen het respecteren van nationale autonomie en het beschermen van haar kernwaarden. Een voorstel om een mechanisme in te voeren waarmee lidstaten die de democratie ondermijnen uit de Unie kunnen worden gezet, wordt in de academische wereld wel geopperd. Dit idee, dat in de thesis kort wordt aangehaald, is echter controversieel en zou de politieke verdeeldheid binnen de EU mogelijk vergroten.
Conclusie: Een Onzekere Toekomst voor Democratische Waarden in de EU
Volgens de bevindingen van Loren Vermeire blijft democratic backsliding een van de grootste bedreigingen voor de EU. Financiële sancties, transparantie-instrumenten en juridische maatregelen bieden enige verlichting, maar zolang er geen politieke eenheid is, blijven deze middelen beperkt effectief. Democratic backsliding tast niet alleen de betrokken landen aan, maar bedreigt de kernwaarden van de Unie als geheel en roept twijfels op over haar toekomst.
De strijd tegen democratic backsliding zal bepalen of de EU als hoeder van democratische waarden geloofwaardig blijft. Met de recente verkiezingen van 2024, staat de EU op een kruispunt: zal ze doortastend ingrijpen om democratie te beschermen, of blijft ze worstelen met verdeeldheid en halfslachtige maatregelen? De komende jaren zullen uitwijzen of de EU erin slaagt een koers te varen die haar kernwaarden veiligstelt of dat politieke verdeeldheid haar ambities blijft ondermijnen.
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