Hebben China, robots en het geglobaliseerde financiële systeem daadwerkelijk bijgedragen aan de groeiende kloof tussen arm en rijk in OESO-landen sinds de jaren zeventig? Of is dit slechts populistische retoriek die zo uit de mond van Trump zou kunnen komen? In mijn scriptie laat ik zien dat er een kern van waarheid schuilt in de beschuldigingen van complotdenkers met betrekking tot deze veelgenoemde zondebokken.
Socrates' kijk op democratie
Socrates, een van de invloedrijkste filosofen uit de Griekse oudheid, vreesde dat meerderheidsbesluiten konden leiden tot ongeïnformeerd stemgedrag. Hij was ook bezorgd dat kandidaten voor publieke functies ongeïnformeerde kiezers zouden misleiden voor persoonlijk gewin, in plaats van te streven naar het algemeen belang, vaak door het aanwijzen van makkelijke zondebokken aan te wijzen. Socrates’ zorgen lijken opvallend relevant in onze moderne wereld, waar we de opkomst zien van populistische figuren zoals Trump, Bolsonaro, Le Pen, Wilders en anderen. Aanhangers van Socrates wijzen erop dat het publiek mogelijk niet volledig begrijpt welke historische factoren hebben bijgedragen aan de huidige socio-economische context. In moeilijke tijden lijkt “le peuple” vaak naar eenvoudige zondebokken te wijzen die verantwoordelijk zouden zijn voor het ondermijnen van de collectieve welvaart. Toch suggereert mijn onderzoek dat de gewone burger wellicht wel in staat is geweest om de oorzaken van toenemende inkomensongelijkheid sinds de jaren 70 correct te identificeren.
Daadwerkelijk verband of spelen er andere dingen?
Door gebruik te maken van de variatie in inkomensongelijkheid en macro-economische indicatoren tussen 35 OESO-landen en over de periode van 1970 tot 2020, is het mogelijk om statistisch te bepalen welke determinanten belangrijk waren bij het verklaren van de ontwikkeling van inkomensongelijkheid sinds de jaren zeventig. Om de veelvoorkomende fout van “toevalstreffers” te vermijden, waarbij positieve resultaten vaker worden gevonden wanneer individuele factoren afzonderlijk worden onderzocht, analyseerde ik acht mogelijke drijfveren met beschikbare data binnen één geïntegreerd kader.
Een andere veelvoorkomende valkuil in statistisch onderzoek zijn “schijncorrelaties”, waarbij het lijkt alsof twee factoren sterk met elkaar verbonden zijn, terwijl ze eigenlijk geen causaal verband hebben. Stel je voor dat de verkoop van ijsjes en het aantal mensen met zonnebrand lijkt samen te stijgen. Dit betekent niet dat meer ijsjes eten zonnebrand veroorzaakt, maar dat beide het gevolg zijn van het warme weer. De schijnbare relatie is dus misleidend. Schijncorrelaties kunnen ons foppen door een verband te laten zien dat er niet echt is, gewoon omdat beide dingen door iets anders, zoals het weer, beïnvloed worden. Door zowel data van verschillende landen als over verschillende periodes te analyseren, kunnen we de invloed van niet-waargenomen elementen die specifiek zijn voor elk land alsook wereldwijde schokken isoleren van de impact van de onderzochte factoren. In het voorbeeld van hierboven kun je aldus de relatie tussen ijsjesverkoop en zonnebrand proberen te schatten onafhankelijk van het weer.
Via deze methode kan ik met enige zekerheid stellen dat globalisering en technologische vooruitgang ten gunste van hoogopgeleide werknemers wel degelijk een link hebben met de evolutie van inkomensongelijkheid in de OESO zoals veelvuldig beweerd. Echter, ophitsende demagogen vergeten vaak de aanzienlijke impact van de verminderde vakbondsmacht in de meeste OESO-landen. In Nieuw-Zeeland is de invloed van de afgenomen vakbondsmacht zelfs groter dan die van de eerste twee factoren samen!
Mijn resultaten zijn ook relevant met betrekking tot de klassieke tegenstellingen tussen links en rechts: een hogere belastingdruk en meer vakbondsmacht zijn daadwerkelijk geassocieerd met lagere niveaus van inkomensongelijkheid. Wel moet ik opmerken dat mijn bevindingen met betrekking tot de impact van publieke sociale uitgaven tegenstrijdig zijn. Mijn onderzoek kijkt voornamelijk naar (publieke) uitgaven voor onderwijs als een mogelijke oplossing voor uitgesproken inkomensongelijkheid. Een maatregel waarbij iedereen beter af is, is door de toegang tot onderwijs verder te subsidiëren en dit te financieren met een forfaitaire belasting op hooggeschoolde werknemers. Omdat ook vermogenden profiteren van goedkoper onderwijs, zijn zij uiteindelijk niet slechter af door de extra belasting.
Hoe gruwelijk is het inflatiemonster écht?
Een opmerkelijke bevinding uit mijn onderzoek is dat inflatie, hoewel de impact gering is, leidt tot lagere niveaus van inkomensongelijkheid. Dit resultaat is zeer sterk in tegenspraak met de beweringen van zowel politici als veel academici.
Het onderzoeken van de relatie tussen het officiële inflatiecijfer en inkomensongelijkheid is echter zeer verraderlijk als men geen rekening houdt met de oorzaken van inflatie. Wanneer de economie oververhit raakt, wordt inflatie vaak aangedreven door krapte op de arbeidsmarkt. In deze periodes zijn zowel inflatie als werkgelegenheid hoger dan normaal. De situatie is heel anders wanneer inflatie wordt veroorzaakt door hoge grondstofprijzen en verstoringen in aanvoerketens, zoals tijdens de energiecrisis. In zulke periodes is de inflatie hoger, terwijl de vraag naar arbeid afneemt. Daarnaast worden lage-inkomensgezinnen nog eens extra hard getroffen, omdat zij relatief gezien kwetsbaarder zijn voor prijsstijgingen van brandstof en voeding dan gezinnen met een hoger inkomen.
Als aanvullend onderzoek heb ik onderzocht of de oorzaak van inflatie daadwerkelijk bepalend is voor de impact ervan op ongelijkheid. Mijn bevindingen bevestigen de hypothese: in het eerste geval gaat inflatie gepaard met een afname van ongelijkheid, terwijl inflatie in het tweede geval juist leidt tot aanzienlijke toenames van ongelijkheid.
Op basis van deze resultaten kan men de vraag stellen of de centrale bank correct handelde door streng op te treden tegen inflatie tijdens de energiecrisis. Ik onderzocht of renteverhogingen na een piek in brandstofprijzen daadwerkelijk kunnen bijdragen aan een vermindering van ongelijkheid, maar mijn bevindingen wijzen juist op het tegendeel. Renteverhogingen versterken juist de negatieve effecten op ongelijkheid.
Terug naar Socrates
Hoewel ik geen bewijs vind voor Socrates' hypothese dat het volk niet in staat zou zijn om effectief stemrecht uit te oefenen vanwege hun onvermogen om de oorzaken van de collectieve socio-economische situatie te begrijpen, deel ik wel zijn beleidsaanbeveling: het bevorderen van onderwijs. Maar waar Socrates onderwijs ziet als een middel om het collectief bewustzijn onder de bevolking te vergroten, beschouw ik onderwijs eerder als een middel om de kloof tussen arm en rijk te verkleinen.
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