Het milieu is beschermd in oorlog. Op papier dan toch.
Zet de champagne koud, want in 2027 verbiedt het internationaal recht al 50 jaar zware milieuschade tijdens gewapende conflicten. Op papier dan toch. In al die jaren stelde geen enkele rechtbank of onderzoekscommissie vast dat het verbod werd overtreden, ondanks de vele gekende milieurampen tijdens oorlogen.
Mijn onderzoek suggereert dat deze niet-toepassing samenhangt met de manier waarop de regel werd vormgegeven in 1977, als een symbolisch compromis dat milieubescherming erkent zonder militaire acties echt te beperken. Wie de regel wil hervormen, moet dus verder kijken dan de tekst alleen.
Maanden rook
Oorlogen vernietigen meer dan steden en mensenleven. Ze verwoesten vaak ook hele ecosystemen, met gevolgen die blijven aanslepen tot lang nadat de wapens zwijgen. In 1991 staken terugtrekkende Iraakse troepen meer dan 600 oliebronnen in Koeweit in brand. Maandenlang hing er een zwarte rookwolk boven het land, en raakten lucht, bodem en grondwater sterk vervuild. Dat lijkt het schoolvoorbeeld van milieuschade die het internationaal recht zou willen voorkomen. Toch is de gangbare opvatting dat zelfs deze ramp niet onder het verbod van het Eerste Aanvullend Protocol bij de Verdragen van Genève zou vallen.
Koeweit is niet de enige plaats waar geen schending werd vastgesteld.
Dat verbod staat in artikels 35 en 55 van dat protocol en verbiedt oorlogvoering waarvan verwacht kan worden dat zij “wijdverspreide, langdurige en ernstige” milieuschade veroorzaakt. Die drie voorwaarden moeten tegelijk vervuld zijn. Vooral de term “langdurig” legt de lat bijzonder hoog, want meestal wordt gedacht aan effecten die meerdere decennia aanhouden, niet aan maanden of jaren.
Koeweit is niet de enige plaats waar geen schending werd vastgesteld. Ook na het NAVO-bombardement op voormalig Joegoslavië concludeerde een onderzoekscommissie dat de vastgestelde milieuschade de vereiste drempel niet bereikte. Meer recent hebben de vernietiging van de Kakhovka-dam in Oekraïne en de schade aan water- en afvalinfrastructuur in Gaza opnieuw aandacht gevestigd op oorlogsschade aan het milieu. Toch werd ook daar niet vastgesteld dat de drempel werd overschreden.
Wat voor regel is dit eigenlijk?
Juristen noemen de niet-toepassing van deze regel al decennia een mislukking en stellen steeds meteen hervormingen voor: de lat moet lager en de woorden duidelijker. Mijn onderzoek vertrekt echter van een andere vraag: wat voor soort regel is dit eigenlijk?
De regel is juridisch sterk bindend, maar weinig precies en moeilijk af te dwingen.
Daarvoor keek ik naar drie eigenschappen: hoe bindend is de regel, hoe duidelijk is ze geformuleerd en wie mag haar afdwingen? Met het werk van rechtswetenschapper Kenneth Abbott en collega’s kon ik de vorm van de milieuregel voor het eerst op deze manier in kaart brengen. De regel is juridisch sterk bindend, maar weinig precies en moeilijk af te dwingen. Dat helpt verklaren waarom ze vooral op papier bescherming biedt.
Vervolgens legde ik de regel naast de zes kenmerken van wat rechtssocioloog Bart van Klink “symbolische wetgeving” noemt. Dit zijn regels die een probleem lijken aan te pakken, maar in de praktijk weinig veranderen. Na de criteria te overlopen bleek de milieuregel zo’n symbolische functie te hebben.
Compromis à la Belge in Genève
Om te begrijpen waarom de regel deze vorm en functie kreeg, helpt het om in de archieven van de diplomatieke conferentie te duiken die tussen 1974 en 1977 in Genève over het protocol plaatsvond. Na de milieuschade van de herbicidencampagne met Agent Orange in de Vietnamoorlog groeide de maatschappelijke druk om het milieu tijdens oorlogen te beschermen. Dit leidde tot ambitieuze voorstellen tijdens de onderhandelingen. Tien landen, voornamelijk uit Europa, wilden bijvoorbeeld elke oorlogsmethode verbieden die het ecologisch evenwicht verstoort, en een onofficiële werkgroep stelde een verbod voor bij verstoring van de stabiliteit van een ecosysteem.
“We begrijpen gewoon niet wat hun punt is.”
– Amerikaanse ambtenaren over de Sovjets, Witte Huis, augustus 1974
Die voorstellen haalden het niet. Landen zoals het Verenigd Koninkrijk verdedigden een hoge drempel met het argument dat je geen tankcommandant wil vervolgen die een bosje platrijdt. Michael Bothe, die zelf aan de onderhandelingen deelnam, schreef later: “Het leger was verbijsterd bij de gedachte dat militaire activiteiten aan milieuoverwegingen onderworpen zouden worden, en het verzette zich.”
In een gedeclassificeerd Amerikaans verslag uit augustus 1974 over parallelle onderhandelingen rond milieuoorlogvoering geven ambtenaren in de Situation Room van het Witte Huis toe niet te begrijpen waarom de Sovjets beperkingen aan militaire acties wilden: “We begrijpen gewoon niet wat hun punt is.” De spanningen van de Koude Oorlog stonden dus ook niet los van het uiteindelijke compromis.
Draaien aan knoppen
De huidige hervormingsdiscussie draait vooral om de vraag of de drempel voor milieuschade te hoog ligt. Mijn onderzoek suggereert dat het probleem dieper zit. De symbolische functie wordt in stand gehouden door de vorm van de regel, en die bestaat uit drie knoppen: hoe bindend ze is, hoe precies ze geformuleerd is en wie ze kan afdwingen. Door de huidige combinatie biedt de regel voorlopig vooral op papier bescherming.
Wie maar aan één knop draait, laat de andere twee ongemoeid.
Dat betekent ook dat hervormingsvoorstellen niet alleen moeten worden beoordeeld op de vraag of ze de drempel verlagen, maar ook op aan welke knop ze draaien. Wie de woorden preciezer definieert, maakt de regel wel scherper, maar creëert daarmee nog geen instantie die een schending kan vaststellen. Wie de milieuregels als zware inbreuken aanmerkt, waarvoor staten daders moeten vervolgen, maakt handhaving makkelijker, maar verduidelijkt de verwoording niet. Elk voorstel raakt zo maar een deel van het probleem, en wie maar aan één knop draait, laat de andere twee ongemoeid.
Dat biedt een ander vertrekpunt voor de hervormingsdiscussie. Voor ngo’s, internationale organisaties en beleidsmakers is dit een manier om hervormingsvoorstellen systematisch naast elkaar te leggen. Zo kunnen ze zien welke combinatie van veranderingen nodig is om de regel uit haar symbolische functie te halen. Wie wil dat toekomstige generaties meer erven dan een bescherming op papier, weet nu aan welke knoppen er gedraaid kan worden. Daar klinken we op.
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