Investigating vegetational survey efficiency using a long-term phenological survey along a subarctic elevation gradient
Universiteit Antwerpen
2024
The warming of the global climate system, particularly pronounced in Arctic regions, poses significant challenges to plant species, communities and ecosystems. Understanding the dynamics of Arctic flora in response to this changing climate is crucial for predicting and mitigating its impacts. Long-term vegetational surveys are crucial monitoring tools to capture these dynamics in species diversity, distribution and phenology. Nevertheless, their observations and projections are frequently based on data lacking sufficient temporal and spatial resolution and often neglect the error caused by imperfect observations. Here, we show that species detection is influenced not only by the inherent dynamics of vegetation, including seasonal and year-to-year fluctuations and the broader context of long-term climate change, but also by other temporal, spatial and species-specific variation within the plant community. Interdependent effects of factors such as growing season temperature, seasonal timing of observation, elevation, total plot species richness, and species-specific traits were found to have a crucial impact on species observation accuracy, often manifesting through changes in phenology and morphology across different dimensions. As such, the changing climate directly and indirectly influences these factors through space and time, making it challenging to make a distinction between inherent species dynamics and inaccurate observations. Our findings highlight the need for multiple surveys per year, effective timing of monitoring within the growing season, year-to-year comparisons and adopting adequate spatial scales to account for imperfect observations, especially when studying species’ temporal dynamics. These insights contribute to broader discussions on the complexities of ecological monitoring and underscore the importance of adapting adequate survey methods to effectively capture species dynamics in a changing climate. This to avoid making misleading conclusions, resulting in over- or underestimations of species dynamics.
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